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Were Turkey's 1994 and 2001 twin crises predictable?: the signal approach

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dc.contributor.authorMihyaz, Timur, author
dc.contributor.authorKling, Robert, advisor
dc.contributor.authorJianakoplos, Nancy, committee member
dc.contributor.authorVasudevan, Ramaa, committee member
dc.contributor.authorDavies, Stephen P., committee member
dc.date.accessioned2007-01-03T05:53:54Z
dc.date.available2007-01-03T05:53:54Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.description.abstractThis study presents a signal approach for predicting the occurrence of currency and banking crisis by using Kaminsky and Reinhart's (1999) Signal Model. The paper focuses on testing this theory by examining the twin crises that occurred in Turkey in 1994 and 2001. In the first step, leading indicators for twin crisis are chosen and then these indicators are used to calculate composite indicators. The out-of-sample performance will also be introduced for the period of 2007-2009. The estimation period is from Jan-1987 to Feb-2001. The real exchange rate (deviation from trend), Export/Import ratio, Excess M1 Balances, Bank Reserves/Bank Asset ratio, and oil prices are the top five indicators that are useful for predicting such crises. Short Term Debt/Reserves, Import, Reserves, and real interest rate are the other important variables that performed well for anticipating these crises.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediumdoctoral dissertations
dc.identifierMihyaz_colostate_0053A_11823.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10217/80167
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2000-2019
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.subjectfinancial crises
dc.subjecthot money
dc.subjectleading indicators
dc.subjectprobability of crises
dc.subjectsignal approach
dc.subjectTurkey
dc.titleWere Turkey's 1994 and 2001 twin crises predictable?: the signal approach
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineEconomics
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelDoctoral
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

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