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The influence of climate, amenities and socio-economic factors on population growth in areas around western national forest land

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dc.contributor.authorWeiss, David, author
dc.contributor.authorLoomis, John, advisor
dc.contributor.authorJoyce, Linda, committee member
dc.contributor.authorWarziniack, Travis, committee member
dc.contributor.authorWeiler, Stephan, committee member
dc.date.accessioned2015-08-28T14:35:00Z
dc.date.available2015-08-28T14:35:00Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding factors that do and do not affect population change helps public land managers anticipate future population changes around national forests and informs future land management planning decisions. This study examines the effects of climate, natural and manmade amenities and socio-economic factors on population growth in rural counties in the West that contain national forest land. Further, it employs a series of forecasting models to estimate population change through 2060 under multiple climate change scenarios and a baseline climate scenario, with particular focus on the five Wyoming counties that contain the Shoshone National Forest. Cross-sectional analysis of population growth from 2000 to 2010 indicates that a wide range of variables are significant in predicting population change. Within the class of climate variables, average low winter temperature exhibits a highly significant negative correlation with population change (i.e. as winter temperatures rise, population growth slows). Average high summer temperature also has a significant negative correlation with population growth, though only when analyzed independently of average low winter temperature. Estimated population growth rates through 2060 tended to be higher among sampled counties with larger base populations. For the most part, forecasting models predicted increases in population for the five Shoshone counties. Among these counties, projected percent change in population from 2010 to 2060 varied considerably less across models for the three counties with relatively larger base populations. Across forecasting models, aggregated predicted population increases for the Shoshone region varied from 65.4% to 154.2%. A relatively small portion of this anticipated population growth was attributable to forecasted increases in summer and winter temperatures, compared to the underlying trend of higher predicted growth rates among counties with higher base year populations.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummasters theses
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10217/167075
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2000-2019
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.titleThe influence of climate, amenities and socio-economic factors on population growth in areas around western national forest land
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineAgricultural and Resource Economics
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.S.)

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