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Linking Pacific storms to North American heat waves

Date

2017

Authors

Jenney, Andrea, author
Randall, David A., author

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Abstract

Long-range predictions of heat waves offer little improvement over climatology despite the continuing improvements of weather forecast models. Tropical variability in weather at sub-seasonal timescales is well-understood to influence weather in the Extratropics, particularly in the winter. For this reason, it is considered a potential source of sub-seasonal predictability of weather. However, much less is understood about the tropical-extratropical connection in the summer. we show that a major climate oscillation in the tropical west pacific is significantly correlated to U.S. heat waves with long lead times, suggesting potential for use in seasonal prediction of these events.

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Subject

atmospheric science
heat waves
mortality
forecasting

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